By D. L. Norris
There was much celebration in the 3 December 2019 BOCC meeting. The grant award agreement was signed between Okaloosa County and Triumph Gulf Coast, Inc., for $64.1 million dollars of BP Oil Spill claim funds to be allocated to the Crestview bypass project. Don Gaetz, the Chairman of Triumph Gulf Coast, his son Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative for Florida’s 1st Congressional District, the Mayor of Crestview, and others were all in attendance to sign this historic document. This was the largest grant award ever received by Okaloosa County. As with all grants, be they public or private, there are usually strings attached, and deadlines that have to be met for expenditures, or the funding could be pulled back. And, that’s where the problem comes in to play with this grant of $64.1 million dollars; construction of the entire Crestview area project must be completed by 31 December 2024 or the grant funds get pulled back.
The Crestview bypass is part of a larger Crestview area project that encompasses 15 different work projects, at a total cost of $200 million dollars, to improve traffic flow and open up 2,000 acres of undeveloped tracts of land for economic growth and development. At no time will the Triumph funds exceed 32% of the cost of any of the projects. In addition to the Triumph grant funding, local option sales tax, local option gas taxes, and Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) funding will also be used in various combinations to completely fund these projects.
As an analyst, I can appreciate the many different types of models and simulations that were used by the traffic engineers and analysts to determine the final design for the Crestview area project. As an analyst, I also understand that “all models are wrong but some are useful”, a quote often stated by the statistician George Box. As an analyst, I know I have to worry about the reality on the ground that does not get accurately input into the models, or that does not get properly parameterized, thus, resulting in unexpected outcomes.
It’s clear, the main goal of the Crestview area project was to efficiently move as much traffic as possible out of the existing neighborhoods and onto SR 85 by stacking cars into double turn lanes and adding new county 4-lane roads where possible. However, once the cars are onto SR 85, the backup will continue without any capacity expansion of that road between now and 2024. There are two projects, #11 and #12, that just don’t appear to add any support to the main goal of the overall project.
Project #11 is the bypass phase V, a $55 million dollar new 4-lane road to begin construction in 2021. Project #12 is the east -west connector, a $15 million dollar new 2-lane road to begin construction in 2021. These two projects will open up 2,000 acres of undeveloped land for future commercial and residential development. As soon as those two projects are complete, expect to see explosive growth in the commercial and residential sectors with most of the traffic funneling down to SR 85 south in the morning and reversing in the evening. Was this future traffic increase part of the original traffic modeling? Doubtful but unknown to the author at this time. Growth is inevitable and growth is good. If the county isn’t growing, it’s dying; but, growth needs to be properly managed.
Since the projects will be done in stages based on available funding and, not necessarily on priority of need, the entire Crestview area project will be constructed well before FDOT begins working on their solution to easing congestion on SR 85 south to S.R. 123. In fact, FDOT doesn’t plan to have the SR 85 design solution until 2022. Also, FDOT has no funding earmarked at this time for the SR 85 right-of-way access and construction, and FDOT has no SR 85 projected construction start and completion dates established at this time. So, one could presume no SR 85 easing of congestion until probably 2025, well after the Crestview area project is complete.
The majority of traffic from Crestview funnels through and down SR 85 south in the mornings to Eglin AFB and reverses flow in the evenings. SR 85 is the work horse roadway of Crestview. If SR 85 is the “horse” then the Crestview area project is the “cart” and the BOCC just put the cart before the horse. But, a fine cart it will be, especially with all the new development that will come with the construction of projects #11 and #12.
From this analyst’s perspective, it seems that projects #11 and #12 could be delayed until after FDOT solves the SR 85 congestion issue somewhere around 2025, then complete the Crestview area project by opening up new development. This would reduce the size of the cart that is going before the horse, thereby relieving some of the pressure on an already over stressed road network. Since the entire Crestview area project is tied to Triumph Gulf Coast funding, couldn’t alternative funding be found to cover the costs of projects #11 & #12 if the county holds off until 2025? It’s understandable that when the gift of grant funding is available, our local government should try to capitalize on it. However, sometimes, if a gift has strings attached, the best thing to do is refuse the gift. Otherwise, taking something now means giving something later. For Crestview residents, that means giving up even more time stuck in even worsening traffic.
You can contact the author at dlnorris@theparadisepatriot.com